From January to October, the positive results of epidemic prevention and control and economic development continued to show. In this context, logistics demand has stabilized and recovered, and the supply and demand of the logistics market have continued to improve. Market expectations are improving, and the logistics industry is operating steadily and rising.

 

1. The growth rate of total social logistics is steady and rising, and the growth of new momentum is strong

 

From January to October, the total amount of social logistics nationwide was 229.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% at comparable prices, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that from January to September. Logistics demand continued the previous upward trend, maintaining a strong rebound since the third quarter. From a structural point of view, the growth rate of industrial logistics demand is stable, the demand for imported logistics continues to improve, and the demand for new kinetic energy related to people's livelihood consumption continues to increase.

 

(1) The growth rate of industrial logistics demand is stable

 

From January to October, the total volume of industrial product logistics increased by 1.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to increase by 0.6 percentage points from January to September. The overall demand for industrial logistics grew steadily, and the growth rate continued to accelerate. From a structural point of view, the decline in logistics demand in the mining industry has continued to narrow, and the growth rate of the manufacturing industry has risen steadily, especially in high-tech manufacturing.

 

Judging from the current month, October increased by 6.9%, basically the same as last month. Among them, the demand for high-end manufacturing logistics continued to grow rapidly, and the growth rate of the energy and raw material industry accelerated. One is the continued rapid growth of the equipment manufacturing industry. In October, the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.8% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit growth for four consecutive months, and continued to play a stable supporting role. The second is the accelerated recovery of the energy raw material industry. Affected by factors such as the heating season and the acceleration of production, the logistics demand of the raw material industry further increased, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the growth rate of the steel, building materials, and chemical industries all rose to the highest this year.

 

(2) Logistics demand for people's livelihood consumption continues to pick up

 

With the restoration of the order of production and life, the logistics demand related to people's livelihood consumption continued to improve, especially the logistics demand for new consumption models maintained a strong growth trend. From January to October, the total amount of goods for units and residents increased by 13.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points higher than that from January to September, and has remained above 10% since the first half of the year.

 

At the same time, from January to October, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 16.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points higher than that from January to September. Driven by this, the express delivery business volume maintained rapid growth. The total business volume of express service companies across the country completed 64.38 billion pieces, an increase of 29.6% year-on-year; the increase in October was still over 40%.

 

(3) Import logistics demand continues to improve

 

Driven by the support of foreign trade policies and the recovery of demand, the demand for imported logistics continues to improve. From January to October, the total volume of imported logistics increased by 9.0%. Although the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points from January to September, it still maintained rapid growth. From the perspective of goods, the import volume of major commodities still maintained rapid growth, and the import volume of some mechanical and electrical products and some agricultural products slowed down.

 

In the first 10 months, imports of steel, unwrought copper and copper materials, and imports increased by 73.9% and 41.4% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was slightly faster than that from January to September; integrated circuits increased by 22.4%, and meat in agricultural products increased by 68.8% , The growth rate dropped slightly from January to September.

 

2. Revenue growth of the logistics industry is accelerating, and the industry is operating steadily and rising

 

(1) The growth rate of total income of the logistics industry has accelerated

 

From January to October, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 8.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points higher than that from January to September.

 

From a structural point of view, the income from warehousing, storage and logistics has grown steadily, and the scale of postal express income has accelerated. From January to October, the postal express business revenue increased by 15.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points higher than that from January to September. It still maintained a strong growth of more than 10%, which has a strong driving effect on the sustainable recovery of the logistics industry's revenue.

 

(2) The logistics industry is operating steadily and rising

 

China's logistics industry prosperity index has been in the expansion range for eight consecutive months. The index rebounded from a high level this month, and the logistics industry is operating steadily and rising:

 

First, both supply and demand in the logistics industry have grown rapidly. In October, the business volume index and the new order index were 56.3% and 56.7%, up 0.2 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Both indexes continue to be above the critical point, showing that logistics supply and demand are in an upward channel, and market activity has further increased. From a regional perspective, the eastern region has accelerated its recovery, while the central and western regions have slowed their high growth momentum.

 

Second, the continued recovery in demand has driven prices up. In October, the logistics service price index was 50.4%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The price index rebounded significantly and was above the critical point for the first time since February, indicating that the supply and demand relationship in the logistics market has improved and the growth rate of logistics service prices has turned from negative to positive.

 

Third, corporate confidence continues to increase. This month's business activity expectations index rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to a high level of 62%. It shows that as the peak consumption season approaches, logistics companies have further recovered their confidence in the development of the industry and are more optimistic about market expectations.

 

Although logistics demand maintained rapid growth in October and market supply and demand recovered steadily, the current cumulative growth rate of major indicators is still at a relatively low level compared with the same period, and there is still much room for recovery. Also need to pay attention to the following issues:

 

The level of social inventory remains high, and the growth rate is increasing. The data shows that from January to September, the growth rate of industrial inventories and finished product inventories above designated size is still relatively high (an increase of 4.9% and 8.2%), and the growth has accelerated for two consecutive months; in October, the ending inventory index in the storage index was compared with the previous month An increase of 3.8 percentage points to 53.2%. Based on the two data, the current inventory level is still at a relatively high level, and the growth rate has accelerated.

 

Storage costs continued to grow, and the growth rate accelerated. Affected by factors such as increased inventory levels, storage and storage costs have shown a trend of simultaneous growth. From January to October, the logistics cost of the custody link in the total social logistics fee increased by 1.8%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that from January to September. Under the influence of higher inventory levels, corporate accounts receivable have grown rapidly, the pressure on warehousing and logistics turnover has increased, and the costs of related storage and capital occupation have increased significantly.